No is attracting significantly more experienced traders, who see only a 28.5% chance of WTI breaking $110 during April 2026. The aggregate trader score favors No by +9.1 points, backed by 428 qualified traders including three high-conviction aliens and multiple whales with strong historical performance. Yes-side buyers are mostly retail and less-experienced traders, suggesting this bet is speculative rather than informed.
Smart traders are backing No at 71.5¢ with measurable confidence. The +14.4 aggregate score and 428 qualified No-side traders versus 681 on Yes suggests experienced money sees oil staying below $110. Three aliens on the No side (including 0xa80e3fe5e7a445fa047fe6de1e27f9a15217b94b with +27.5 score and 94% hit rate) add credibility. Even 0xe734e7bf7cfb9e464681f71822f6c2f6be514f0c, who holds both sides, sized much bigger on No ($15k vs $7.7k on Yes) and entered lower, signaling conviction in the downside bet. The only high-score whale on Yes (0x94a428cfa4f84b264e01f70d93d02bc96cb36356) is massively underwater at entry 80¢, suggesting he got timing wrong.
Qualified holders binned by our proprietary trader score (-100 to +100).
No-side whales are consolidated and confident. The top four No-side wallets control nearly 58% of whale dollars, with 0xa80e3fe5e7a445fa047fe6de1e27f9a15217b94b ($369.7k, entry 20¢) and 0x1a29b75d4bfb5d62b343e4abdd10b60c0ce19b2e ($31.8k, entry 77¢, +46.4 score) leading the charge. By contrast, Yes-side is anchored by 0x94a428cfa4f84b264e01f70d93d02bc96cb36356 ($378.5k at entry 80¢), who is stuck with a +$3.46M realized gain but is now betting on a moonshot he got wrong the entry price on — a red flag. The 0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3 whale on Yes is actively bleeding (-$251k PnL, -46.7 score), showing weak conviction.
This market is highly concentrated — No-side top 10 control 88.4% of dollars, Yes-side top 10 control 78.7%. The divergence is telling: the 32 whales on No are organized and profitable, while the 25 whales on Yes include several underwater or low-conviction holders. Volume has been quiet ($113k in 24h), suggesting we're not in active momentum accumulation yet, but No-side has the structural advantage. The No-side alien classification (3 traders vs 0 on Yes) indicates a layer of predictive skill that Yes cannot match. Over-concentration on both sides creates tail risk if one major holder changes their mind, but the quality of No-side holders (higher scores, better hit rates) suggests their conviction is stickier.
Share of outcome dollars controlled by the top holders. Higher bars = more concentrated.
Weighted-average entry price of each holder, binned 0¢ to 100¢.
Top-holder dollars binned by our proprietary trader score. Where the money actually sits.