Our proprietary trader score favors No (+21.4 vs +18.2 on Yes), a modest 3.3-point edge that reflects genuine trader skepticism about diplomatic momentum. No side has more qualified traders (193 vs 108) and deeper liquidity, while Yes concentrates heavily in its top 10 holders (69% vs 54% on No). The No whales aren't overwhelming, but their positioning and above-average hit rates suggest conviction that current geopolitical headwinds make a formal meeting unlikely by the April deadline.
No attracts a modest score advantage (+21.4) with nearly double the qualified traders on board (193 vs 108). The top No holders show solid hit rates (mostly 54–72%) and positive PnL, suggesting they're making informed bets. Yes side has a few high-conviction players (0x25db scoring +37.6, 0xbacd scoring +50.7), but they're outnumbered and the aggregate score lags. The gap isn't wide — only 3.3 points — signaling that smart money doubts a meeting, but isn't certain.
Qualified holders binned by our proprietary trader score (-100 to +100).
No side has 25 whales controlling $43.5k (32% of No dollars), while Yes has 25 whales controlling $61k (44% of Yes dollars). On No, top whales like 0x0c3c6ced and 0xcb59ea show strong hit rates (64%, 58%) and solid PnL, backing their skepticism. Yes side whales are noisier: 0x96489abc is a major holder with -$5.7M PnL and a -69 score, clearly losing on this bet, while 0xbacd00c and 0x030a01ff back Yes with high scores (+50.7, +48.0). Overall, No has better-performing whale money, though neither side shows dominant concentration.
The market is split down the middle by price (49.5¢ vs 50.5¢), but data reveals lopsided conviction: No concentration sits at 54% in the top 10, while Yes is heavily concentrated at 69%. Yes side is thinner — only 119 holders vs 229 on No — suggesting retail enthusiasm for optimism hasn't materialized. Flow is mixed: qualified traders outnumber unqualified on both sides, but No's deeper trader roster and higher aggregate score hint at quiet accumulation of skepticism, while Yes whales are dumping or treading water. Momentum is not clearly bullish or bearish; it's better described as a slow-motion repricing downward.
Share of outcome dollars controlled by the top holders. Higher bars = more concentrated.
Weighted-average entry price of each holder, binned 0¢ to 100¢.
Top-holder dollars binned by our proprietary trader score. Where the money actually sits.