Evolution
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
4 snapshots across 1 day · 9.0 hrs avg
Biggest score swing
-0.9
Yes · 8.6 → 7.7
Favored-outcome flips
0
held steady
Current lean
No
medium conviction
Most recent
16 days
ago · Apr 24, 21:33
Evolution summary
Preparing summary…
Drift
How the core metrics have moved across snapshots.
Smart-money score
Aggregate trader score per sideYesNo
Top-10 concentration
% of outcome dollars held by the 10 largestYesNo
Whale dollars
Total $10K+ position dollars per sideYesNo
Favored-outcome story
Each segment is one snapshot. Color = favored side, opacity = conviction.
Apr 23, 18:30 · favors No · medium
Apr 23, 18:54 · favors No · medium
Apr 24, 16:05 · favors No · medium
Apr 24, 21:33 · favors No · medium
Apr 23
Apr 24
Apr 24
Apr 24
Apr 24
YesNohighmediumlow
Compare two snapshots
Pick a starting point and an ending point to see what shifted.
→
Yes
+8.6→+7.7
-0.9
No
+12.3→+12.6
+0.3
Yes side · whale roster changes
Appeared (7)
- 0x7447…a16d$193.4K-33
- 0x7b02…4991$185.0K+43
- 0xa022…77f8$151.8K+30
- 0x1d16…e798$77.9K+25
- 0x4a2b…af20$70.3K+39
- 0x4478…02a4$70.0K+48
- 0x5188…c804$68.1K+52
Left (7)
- 0xd737…be95$382.8K+37
- 0x614d…1546$121.7K+50
- 0xbaa2…2c73$118.8K+61
- 0xdb9b…1d68$61.5K-30
- 0xdc03…804c$60.2K+44
- 0xbb8e…b243$51.9K+33
- 0x162f…798d$45.2K+51
Grew (5)
- 0xde7b…5f4b$269.7K → $732.0K+47
- 0xbacd…ab35$104.1K → $399.6K+51
- 0xc851…cd2a$287.4K → $333.6K+53
- 0xc658…b784$47.2K → $326.5K-41
- 0xb4f2…7851$60.7K → $90.7K+39
Shrunk (1)
- 0x2b76…edef$151.9K → $117.4K+31
No side · whale roster changes
Appeared (8)
- 0x0c0e…434e$269.2K+49
- 0x7523…4c4c$200.0K+41
- 0xe52c…6924$199.3K+51
- 0x2e0b…8070$147.6K+49
- 0x0e5b…a593$55.0K+40
- 0x3e0a…b9cc$52.1K-20
- 0x8b24…c4be$50.4K+45
- 0xc0ff…9953$48.0K+37
Left (8)
- 0x430f…5947$138.0K+36
- 0x9631…89a1$50.9K+45
- 0x6bab…1292$42.8K+53
- 0xdbad…9c95$39.2K+48
- 0xd3ec…6603$38.2K+27
- 0x05e2…6e12$34.8K+47
- 0xe541…d45d$33.3K+43
- 0x0e6f…dfb9$26.0K-31
Grew (3)
- 0xa81e…03dc$61.2K → $92.0K+34
- 0xab19…4876$35.4K → $60.0K-48
- 0xecaa…77a9$45.8K → $51.8K-44
Shrunk (2)
- 0x9648…6825$180.0K → $143.4K-68
- 0xe119…e30f$81.5K → $68.6K+32
Narrative evolution
How smart money’s one-line read changed, latest first.
- Apr 24, 21:33·16 days agolatestmedium · favors No
Smart traders are betting No at 98¢ with mild conviction — traffic unlikely to recover to normal by April 2026.
- Apr 24, 16:05·17 days agomedium · favors No
Smart money backing No at 97¢—traffic unlikely to return to normal by April, but conviction is only moderate.
- Apr 23, 18:54·18 days agomedium · favors No
Smart money backs No at 97¢ with modest conviction—Hormuz traffic returning to normal is a long shot.
- Apr 23, 18:30·18 days agomedium · favors No
Smart traders back No at 96.7¢—they doubt Hormuz traffic normalizes by April '26.