Qualified traders show a +21.7 aggregate score favoring Yes, nearly four times higher than No's +5.7. The top 10 Yes holders are stacked with high-conviction traders, controlling 90.8% of Yes dollars with a whale-heavy composition. Despite a price of 100¢ on Yes (and 0.1¢ on No), smart money has built outsized positions backing a 14-day ceasefire by June 2026—a signal the market is either mispricing resolution likelihood or those traders are betting on near-term diplomatic shifts.
The gap between Yes and No aggregate scores is substantial (21.7 vs. 5.7), and 336 of 370 qualified traders cluster on the Yes side. The top three Yes holders—0xfffadf38a520cd5a0035ff52d7fceb436a08864b (+50.7 score), 0x000d257d2dc7616feaef4ae0f14600fdf50a758e (+64.6), and 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1 (+51.7)—have strong track records (51–72% hit rates) and large cumulative PnL, indicating these aren't noise traders. Even the whale-to-retail ratio on Yes (94.2% whale dollars) confirms institutional confidence. Conversely, No-side top holders (0x1796ecf5f6076b06dc4046398b4e8acca40bf068, 0x9a18220f85816d0ad857da4766fcd29fec25c5c4) show negative scores and poor hit rates (12–17%), suggesting skepticism among experienced traders rather than conviction.
Qualified holders binned by our proprietary trader score (-100 to +100).
Whales dominate the Yes side absolutely: 54 whale accounts control 94.2% of Yes-side dollars ($1.68M of $1.79M). The top Yes whale 0xfffadf38a520cd5a0035ff52d7fceb436a08864b holds $557k at breakeven (100¢) with a +50.7 score and $531k realized PnL—a pattern suggesting deep conviction and successful calls in the past. 0x000d257d2dc7616feaef4ae0f14600fdf50a758e's +64.6 score and $1.53M PnL on a $24k position is a green flag. The No side whales are fragmented (36.9% top-10 concentration) and mostly underwater: 0x5b6331e7ff0831a3fe2ed12004747db1a9c911a4 is -$444k PnL, 0x8ccedcdd40c9623a524c2e734879fc397b865c11 is -$119k, indicating these traders are betting against their own historical success.
Concentration is extreme on the Yes side: the top 10 holders control 90.8% of dollars, and the top 25 control 97.2%. This is not retail-driven price discovery—it's whale accumulation with strong conviction. Momentum reads as accumulating because high-scoring whales (0xfffadf38a520cd5a0035ff52d7fceb436a08864b, 0x000d257d2dc7616feaef4ae0f14600fdf50a758e, 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1) are stacked into Yes, while No-side whales show poor scores and losses. The contrast is sharp: qualified traders favor Yes by 16 points, yet price sits at 100¢ Yes / 0.1¢ No—suggesting either the market has already priced in the view or sharp traders are getting ahead of broader sentiment shifts (e.g., diplomatic negotiations, Trump administration policy).
Share of outcome dollars controlled by the top holders. Higher bars = more concentrated.
Weighted-average entry price of each holder, binned 0¢ to 100¢.
Top-holder dollars binned by our proprietary trader score. Where the money actually sits.