Traders with strong track records are piling into Yes, backing a 14-day ceasefire scenario before April 2026. The aggregate score of +24.8 versus +6.2 on No is meaningful, and three high-conviction whales (scores +68.8, +47.7, +54.4) are stacked long. That said, the top 10 Yes holders control 83% of the side, and two major whales on the Yes side are underwater with terrible hit rates (scores -68.5, -55.0), creating volatility risk if sentiment shifts.
Yes attracts the smarter capital: an aggregate score of +24.8 beats No's +6.2 by a meaningful margin. Three of the top four Yes whales have scores above +45 and hit rates of 75%+, indicating skilled traders who made money on previous calls. Alien trader 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5 is sitting on $1.7M in gains (score +68.8, 85% hit rate) and holding $4M Yes. However, conviction is tempered by the presence of two large underwater whales on the Yes side (0xd1c769317bd15de7768a70d0214cf0bbcc531d2b down $2.7M at score -68.5, 0x78048aa26ac1967566b8ed11910b529e5f2d7025 down $297K at score -55.0), which suggests recent capitulation or bad entry timing rather than fresh accumulation.
Qualified holders binned by our proprietary trader score (-100 to +100).
Whale concentration is extreme on Yes—the top 10 hold 83% of the $20.8M side. Three high-conviction whales are betting Yes hard: 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5 ($4M, score +68.8, alien status, $1.7M profit), 0x2785e7022dc20757108204b13c08cea8613b70ae ($3.1M, score +47.7, 75% hit rate, $214K profit), and 0x2d99e29c4f066ba32098c65e4c7454b277d94ca3 ($458K, score +54.4, 76% hit rate, $173K profit). On No, whales are quieter: top whale 0x6480542954b70a674a74bd1a6015dec362dc8dc5 ($2.2M, score +54.5) is the only qualified whale with a strong score, and the No side has less concentrated whale conviction overall.
Yes-side concentration is severe: top 10 holders own 82.8% of dollars, top 25 own 93.3%. This creates a small-group dynamic where the sentiment of a handful of whales drives the side. On No, concentration is lower (top 10 own 52.8%), suggesting more dispersed betting against ceasefire. Momentum is accumulating on Yes because high-scoring whales dominate that side and most hold at entry price 100¢, indicating recent or ongoing conviction bets. No whales are mostly sitting at 0–4¢ entries, showing they took these positions cheaply and early, but with only moderate aggregate scoring (+6.2 vs +24.8 for Yes), there's no fresh whale push into No. The 643 qualified traders on Yes versus 1,697 on No indicates Yes quality is concentrated among fewer, smarter traders, while No is more retail-driven.
Share of outcome dollars controlled by the top holders. Higher bars = more concentrated.
Weighted-average entry price of each holder, binned 0¢ to 100¢.
Top-holder dollars binned by our proprietary trader score. Where the money actually sits.